Professional Guide to PayDay Loans

If the issuer does not default, which is, measured by historical standards, extremely unlikely for an A-rated company, an investor earns an incremental coupon income of 100 bp over a 1-year horizon. Conditional on the fact that the bond receives a downgrade to Baa during the course of the year, a price depreciation of 50 bp times the duration of the bond at the end of the year, that is approximately 3.5, would have to be expected. Since Baa-rated US corporate bonds on average traded at 150 bp over treasuries, 50 bp represents the spread widening that has to be expected as a consequence of the downgrade. Consequently the investor expects a negative excess return of 100 – 3.5x 50= -75 bp, if the rating is downgraded from A to Baa. Table 9.4 details the same computation for the other potential rating changes.

Evidence shows that a spread level of merely 25 bp was never achieved between 1989 and 2003 for Baa rated US corporate bonds. One reason is that from an economic perspective the default probabilities and recovery rates that were assumed to calculate the required spreads were too optimistic for this period. Especially between 1997 and 2002 the fundamental environment for corporate bonds was unfavorable. New technologies, company takeovers and equity buyback programs were primarily financed by the issuance of corporate bonds, resulting in an increased level of leverage in the corporate sector. Investors consequently required higher risk premia to invest in corporate bonds. One way to obtain more adequate estimates of required spreads is to use default probabilities and recovery rates that are typical for the current stage of the business cycle. Modern models for credit risk management and the pricing of credit derivatives account for the current economic environment. In particular, they differentiate between periods of expansion and contraction, because historically default rates increased and recovery rates fell during economic downturns, thus leading to a higher risk for credit investors. Additionally, a worst-case-scenario can be constructed assuming a zero per cent recovery value. A fair spread of 0.46 percent will be computed for Baa rated corporate bonds with a maturity of 5 years which is again a lot lower than the actually observed spreads.

Suppliers wield significant power if the item they provide is scarce or unique, or if there are only a few suppliers. They have considerable power to damage a competitive position. One response is to build close relations with important suppliers to secure delivery and control prices.

In the long term, the solution may be to move into the supplier’s industry to safeguard supplies.

The power of the customer is another source of competition. The issues that need consideration are how dependent the business is on individual customers, the ease with which customers can move to another supplier, the customer’s knowledge of the business’s competitors and the conditions (price, quality, overall offer) that are prevailing. The growth of the internet as a sales channel has empowered customers. In an increasingly networked, global marketplace, prices become transparent and it is much easier to discover when prices for the same thing are different in separate geographic markets. Price transparency became even more of a strategic issue for businesses in euro zone countries when they adopted a single currency.

Market entry

New entrants to a market pose a competitive threat that firms underestimate at their peril. So firms should always think hard about who might enter the market, how and when this might happen, and who has the resources, technical skills and ingenuity to move in on your territory with a more attractive product offer.

Substitutability

Businesses with a product or service for which customers might choose an alternative face a competitive threat, especially if the alternative is cheaper. For example, an airline may face competition from a high speed rail operator. What matters is recognising that some organisations need only to redefine their business in slightly broader terms for it to become a competitor. This was highlighted in the 1960s by Theodore Levitt, a business writer and marketing guru, who warned of the dangers of marketing myopia: seeing a business in simple, narrow terms, rather than from the perspective of the market. It is important to a business in broad terms that are understood by the market: for example, an airline company is a transport company, and may therefore enter the rail or shipping business; a theatre is In the leisure industry, and may start competing with  cinemas or restaurants, and so on.