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Choose your credit options wisely

136For a corporate bond investor who is willing to hold a corporate bond to maturity the credit spread has to compensate fully for the loss if the company defaults during the lifetime of the bond. The expected loss is given by the product of the probability of default, pD, and loss severity, which is defined as 100 percent minus the recovery rate, R. On the other hand, if the company does not default, the investor earns an excess return equivalent to the spread, S, times maturity of the bond, T. The effect of interest on interest is ignored in this calculation.

Based on the Moody’s data depicted above, our study provides an overview of the spreads that are required to compensate investors for default risk associated with holding corporate bonds of a certain rating class. Even if the general approach is buy-and-hold investment restrictions with respect to ratings may cause investors to be forced  sellers when the bonds of an issuer are downgraded, for example, below investment grade.

This effect is not considered in the computed spreads, because this is rather the perspective of an active investor, which is laid out below.

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Taking credit in difficult times

83Air France, in common with other established carriers in Europe and North America, found its traditional markets threatened by the downturn in the airline industry and the increase in low-cost carriers. To remain competitive, the company paid special attention to four techniques:

Reacting rapidly. All Air France’s main decisions following the crisis of September 11th 2001 were taken on September 18th. They were later adjusted and developed, but the new strategy was formed and implemented quickly.

Acting collectively. The board meets to react quickly, considering how best to respond to events and how to co-ordinate their response.

Constantly looking at all competitors. This keeps the business lean and focused on what matters. In France, there has been an established lower-cost competitor to Air France since 1981: the TGV high-speed train. This has meant that many of the disciplines needed for competing with low-cost operators have been developed over many years.

Using all available resources. Competing has meant employing all the assets and advantages that a big industrial carrier has in order to counter low-cost operators, including its brand, market position and operational strengths. Often a competitor’s strategy is to build market share with temporary low prices and then to raise them. An active and patient approach can help to reduce or remove the threat of competitors.

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Understand the issues affecting the credit

A strategy may be well conceived and executed, and it may even succeed in achieving its aims, but it may still be vulnerable to a competitor’s actions. To be robust, decisions need to take account of potential competitive threats, and so it is useful to consider worst-case scenarios to make decisions.

Consider the example of a small sandwich bar with a regular, local clientele. Suddenly, a film crew comes to town and, because of its exclusive patronage, business booms. Is this good for the sandwich bar? In the short-term, definitely. In the longer term, possibly not. Regular customers may go elsewhere, tired of waiting longer than usual to be served, and when the film crew leaves, the sandwich bar will be in a weaker position than it was before they came, if its original customers have discovered better or cheaper competitors. One solution may be to deliver orders (or at least the film crew’s), and have more pre-prepared sandwiches to minimise delays. A more desperate and less satisfactory measure might be (after the film crew has left town) to reduce prices or increase marketing with the extra cash made during the boom. In any event, market awareness is vital to competitiveness.

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