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136For a corporate bond investor who is willing to hold a corporate bond to maturity the credit spread has to compensate fully for the loss if the company defaults during the lifetime of the bond. The expected loss is given by the product of the probability of default, pD, and loss severity, which is defined as 100 percent minus the recovery rate, R. On the other hand, if the company does not default, the investor earns an excess return equivalent to the spread, S, times maturity of the bond, T. The effect of interest on interest is ignored in this calculation.

Based on the Moody’s data depicted above, our study provides an overview of the spreads that are required to compensate investors for default risk associated with holding corporate bonds of a certain rating class. Even if the general approach is buy-and-hold investment restrictions with respect to ratings may cause investors to be forced  sellers when the bonds of an issuer are downgraded, for example, below investment grade.

This effect is not considered in the computed spreads, because this is rather the perspective of an active investor, which is laid out below.

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Market entry with credit

Market entry

New entrants to a market pose a competitive threat that firms underestimate at their peril. So firms should always think hard about who might enter the market, how and when this might happen, and who has the resources, technical skills and ingenuity to move in on your territory with a more attractive product offer.

Substitutability

Businesses with a product or service for which customers might choose an alternative face a competitive threat, especially if the alternative is cheaper. For example, an airline may face competition from a high speed rail operator. What matters is recognising that some organisations need only to redefine their business in slightly broader terms for it to become a competitor. This was highlighted in the 1960s by Theodore Levitt, a business writer and marketing guru, who warned of the dangers of marketing myopia: seeing a business in simple, narrow terms, rather than from the perspective of the market. It is important to a business in broad terms that are understood by the market: for example, an airline company is a transport company, and may therefore enter the rail or shipping business; a theatre is In the leisure industry, and may start competing with  cinemas or restaurants, and so on.

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