Professional Guide to PayDay Loans

As mentioned before, from an active portfolio manager’s perspective a major concern is migration risk. Investors who do not hold a bond until maturity have to be compensated for a possible deterioration in credit quality, a potentially resulting downgrade and increased volatility. This becomes even more important if the downgrade triggers investment restrictions. For a specific corporate bond the expected excess return over duration-matched government bonds can be estimated in three steps:

• The probability of rating changes are derived from a rating transition matrix;
• Spread and price changes for up- and downgraded bonds have to be estimated.
• Expected return is computed as the weighted sum of the price changes.

Consider a portfolio of 5-year A-rated US corporate bonds. Between 1989 and 2003 they traded on average at a premium of about 100 bp over durationmatched government bonds which is roughly the level that was reached in August 2003. Our show study s that 91.20 percent of these bonds maintain their rating and hence can be expected to earn an excess return of 100 bp over a 1-year time-horizon. Of the bonds rated A at the beginning of the year 2.66 percent can be expected to receive an upgrade in the course of the year.

Investors would expect to benefit from a subsequent spread tightening to an average of 55 bp if upgraded to Aaa or 70 bp if the bonds are upgraded to Aa. Conversely, downgrades below A would result in widening credit spreads and consequently negative excess returns versus duration-matched government bonds. Differences in accrued interest between corporate bonds and government bonds can be considered at this stage.

Market entry

New entrants to a market pose a competitive threat that firms underestimate at their peril. So firms should always think hard about who might enter the market, how and when this might happen, and who has the resources, technical skills and ingenuity to move in on your territory with a more attractive product offer.

Substitutability

Businesses with a product or service for which customers might choose an alternative face a competitive threat, especially if the alternative is cheaper. For example, an airline may face competition from a high speed rail operator. What matters is recognising that some organisations need only to redefine their business in slightly broader terms for it to become a competitor. This was highlighted in the 1960s by Theodore Levitt, a business writer and marketing guru, who warned of the dangers of marketing myopia: seeing a business in simple, narrow terms, rather than from the perspective of the market. It is important to a business in broad terms that are understood by the market: for example, an airline company is a transport company, and may therefore enter the rail or shipping business; a theatre is In the leisure industry, and may start competing with  cinemas or restaurants, and so on.