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View credit conflicts competitively

188Partnerships enable organizations to achieve their vision, and most of the time they look great on paper. But all too often the cultures clash, conflict reigns, and, in the end, everyone loses. While conflict can appear at any stage of the Partnership Continuum, it is especially common during the Storm Stage of Relationship Development, when conflict erupts and must be resolved. If organizations have a past orientation and view the conflict competitively, then losers and winners are created. This dooms any hope of synergy moving the partnership into the creative zone.However attractive a partner may appear, making the partnership work takes time and effort. Companies do not have many problems becoming partners, but they often run into trouble managing their partnerships.

I’ve been on the inside with some of the largest conglomerates in America before, during, and after celebrated mergers and takeovers, and I’ve witnessed both success and bloody dissolution. The human factor is the most powerful variable in the fate of a partnership. How the people who make up these organizations build relationships and accomplish critical tasks invariably determines the outcome of the partnership.

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Modern models for credit risk management

143Evidence shows that a spread level of merely 25 bp was never achieved between 1989 and 2003 for Baa rated US corporate bonds. One reason is that from an economic perspective the default probabilities and recovery rates that were assumed to calculate the required spreads were too optimistic for this period. Especially between 1997 and 2002 the fundamental environment for corporate bonds was unfavorable. New technologies, company takeovers and equity buyback programs were primarily financed by the issuance of corporate bonds, resulting in an increased level of leverage in the corporate sector. Investors consequently required higher risk premia to invest in corporate bonds. One way to obtain more adequate estimates of required spreads is to use default probabilities and recovery rates that are typical for the current stage of the business cycle. Modern models for credit risk management and the pricing of credit derivatives account for the current economic environment. In particular, they differentiate between periods of expansion and contraction, because historically default rates increased and recovery rates fell during economic downturns, thus leading to a higher risk for credit investors. Additionally, a worst-case-scenario can be constructed assuming a zero per cent recovery value. A fair spread of 0.46 percent will be computed for Baa rated corporate bonds with a maturity of 5 years which is again a lot lower than the actually observed spreads.

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Taking credit in difficult times

83Air France, in common with other established carriers in Europe and North America, found its traditional markets threatened by the downturn in the airline industry and the increase in low-cost carriers. To remain competitive, the company paid special attention to four techniques:

Reacting rapidly. All Air France’s main decisions following the crisis of September 11th 2001 were taken on September 18th. They were later adjusted and developed, but the new strategy was formed and implemented quickly.

Acting collectively. The board meets to react quickly, considering how best to respond to events and how to co-ordinate their response.

Constantly looking at all competitors. This keeps the business lean and focused on what matters. In France, there has been an established lower-cost competitor to Air France since 1981: the TGV high-speed train. This has meant that many of the disciplines needed for competing with low-cost operators have been developed over many years.

Using all available resources. Competing has meant employing all the assets and advantages that a big industrial carrier has in order to counter low-cost operators, including its brand, market position and operational strengths. Often a competitor’s strategy is to build market share with temporary low prices and then to raise them. An active and patient approach can help to reduce or remove the threat of competitors.

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Exploit sources of competitive credit advantage

Developing and maintaining a keen awareness of the market will help a firm identify its sources of competitive advantage and disadvantage, and then to build on strengths and minimise its weaknesses. There are many ways to do this and tangible and intangible resources that can be used in the process.

Cash reserves can be used to finance sustained marketing campaigns, innovative development programmes or price
reductions.

Purchasing power and the ability to secure reliable supply at low costs develop competitiveness. Costs, quality, prices and delivery can be improved by building close working relations with preferred suppliers.

People are invariably the decisive factor in achieving success: an organisation can only be as good as the people who work for it. If there is typically a high staff turnover in the industry, the business should be geared to recruiting the best employees. If flexibility and speed of response are valuable (and they usually are), the organisation should be able to anticipate major decisions, making the right choices and implementing them.

Effective leadership is essential; its absence is a source of competitive disadvantage. Product factors inevitably have a significant impact on competitiveness. They include pricing and discounts, distribution channels, marketing methods, brand reputation and appeal, product quality and how the product relates to others (for example, the popularity of film merchandise rests largely on the success of the film).

Market awareness – understanding who the customers are and what they want (and do not want or need) – is also decisive in determining competitiveness. Few markets are clearly defined, and although a business may be open to any potential customer, it is important to know exactly who the core customers are so that their interests can be given priority.

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Factors intensifying credit competition

Decision-makers should be able to recognise when competition may arise or when it is gathering pace. Competition can intensify in several circumstances:

When a market is expanding or new, as with computers and software over the past 20 years or with the mobile telecommunications industry during the past ten years.

When the stakes are high and there are big profits (or losses) to be made, notably when there are few organisations in a large market as, for example, with Coca-Cola.

When a market is about to change, perhaps as a result of developments affecting patents and intellectual property rights (for example, when the patent for a drug expires), or political or legal developments, such as privatisation.

When a market is shrinking, especially when there is overcapacity in an industry (usually one that is mature), with firms chasing fewer and fewer customers. This is apparent in a number of long-established manufacturing industries such as ship-building, steel-making and car production.

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