If the issuer does not default, which is, measured by historical standards, extremely unlikely for an A-rated company, an investor earns an incremental coupon income of 100 bp over a 1-year horizon. Conditional on the fact that the bond receives a downgrade to Baa during the course of the year, a price depreciation of 50 bp times the duration of the bond at the end of the year, that is approximately 3.5, would have to be expected. Since Baa-rated US corporate bonds on average traded at 150 bp over treasuries, 50 bp represents the spread widening that has to be expected as a consequence of the downgrade. Consequently the investor expects a negative excess return of 100 - 3.5x 50= -75 bp, if the rating is downgraded from A to Baa. Table 9.4 details the same computation for the other potential rating changes.

As mentioned before, from an active portfolio manager’s perspective a major concern is migration risk. Investors who do not hold a bond until maturity have to be compensated for a possible deterioration in credit quality, a potentially resulting downgrade and increased volatility. This becomes even more important if the downgrade triggers investment restrictions. For a specific corporate bond the expected excess return over duration-matched government bonds can be estimated in three steps:

• The probability of rating changes are derived from a rating transition matrix;
• Spread and price changes for up- and downgraded bonds have to be estimated.
• Expected return is computed as the weighted sum of the price changes.

Consider a portfolio of 5-year A-rated US corporate bonds. Between 1989 and 2003 they traded on average at a premium of about 100 bp over durationmatched government bonds which is roughly the level that was reached in August 2003. Our show study s that 91.20 percent of these bonds maintain their rating and hence can be expected to earn an excess return of 100 bp over a 1-year time-horizon. Of the bonds rated A at the beginning of the year 2.66 percent can be expected to receive an upgrade in the course of the year.

Investors would expect to benefit from a subsequent spread tightening to an average of 55 bp if upgraded to Aaa or 70 bp if the bonds are upgraded to Aa. Conversely, downgrades below A would result in widening credit spreads and consequently negative excess returns versus duration-matched government bonds. Differences in accrued interest between corporate bonds and government bonds can be considered at this stage.

Evidence shows that a spread level of merely 25 bp was never achieved between 1989 and 2003 for Baa rated US corporate bonds. One reason is that from an economic perspective the default probabilities and recovery rates that were assumed to calculate the required spreads were too optimistic for this period. Especially between 1997 and 2002 the fundamental environment for corporate bonds was unfavorable. New technologies, company takeovers and equity buyback programs were primarily financed by the issuance of corporate bonds, resulting in an increased level of leverage in the corporate sector. Investors consequently required higher risk premia to invest in corporate bonds. One way to obtain more adequate estimates of required spreads is to use default probabilities and recovery rates that are typical for the current stage of the business cycle. Modern models for credit risk management and the pricing of credit derivatives account for the current economic environment. In particular, they differentiate between periods of expansion and contraction, because historically default rates increased and recovery rates fell during economic downturns, thus leading to a higher risk for credit investors. Additionally, a worst-case-scenario can be constructed assuming a zero per cent recovery value. A fair spread of 0.46 percent will be computed for Baa rated corporate bonds with a maturity of 5 years which is again a lot lower than the actually observed spreads.

For a corporate bond investor who is willing to hold a corporate bond to maturity the credit spread has to compensate fully for the loss if the company defaults during the lifetime of the bond. The expected loss is given by the product of the probability of default, pD, and loss severity, which is defined as 100 percent minus the recovery rate, R. On the other hand, if the company does not default, the investor earns an excess return equivalent to the spread, S, times maturity of the bond, T. The effect of interest on interest is ignored in this calculation.

Based on the Moody’s data depicted above, our study provides an overview of the spreads that are required to compensate investors for default risk associated with holding corporate bonds of a certain rating class. Even if the general approach is buy-and-hold investment restrictions with respect to ratings may cause investors to be forced  sellers when the bonds of an issuer are downgraded, for example, below investment grade.

This effect is not considered in the computed spreads, because this is rather the perspective of an active investor, which is laid out below.

Air France, in common with other established carriers in Europe and North America, found its traditional markets threatened by the downturn in the airline industry and the increase in low-cost carriers. To remain competitive, the company paid special attention to four techniques:

Reacting rapidly. All Air France’s main decisions following the crisis of September 11th 2001 were taken on September 18th. They were later adjusted and developed, but the new strategy was formed and implemented quickly.

Acting collectively. The board meets to react quickly, considering how best to respond to events and how to co-ordinate their response.

Constantly looking at all competitors. This keeps the business lean and focused on what matters. In France, there has been an established lower-cost competitor to Air France since 1981: the TGV high-speed train. This has meant that many of the disciplines needed for competing with low-cost operators have been developed over many years.

Using all available resources. Competing has meant employing all the assets and advantages that a big industrial carrier has in order to counter low-cost operators, including its brand, market position and operational strengths. Often a competitor’s strategy is to build market share with temporary low prices and then to raise them. An active and patient approach can help to reduce or remove the threat of competitors.

A strategy may be well conceived and executed, and it may even succeed in achieving its aims, but it may still be vulnerable to a competitor’s actions. To be robust, decisions need to take account of potential competitive threats, and so it is useful to consider worst-case scenarios to make decisions.

Consider the example of a small sandwich bar with a regular, local clientele. Suddenly, a film crew comes to town and, because of its exclusive patronage, business booms. Is this good for the sandwich bar? In the short-term, definitely. In the longer term, possibly not. Regular customers may go elsewhere, tired of waiting longer than usual to be served, and when the film crew leaves, the sandwich bar will be in a weaker position than it was before they came, if its original customers have discovered better or cheaper competitors. One solution may be to deliver orders (or at least the film crew’s), and have more pre-prepared sandwiches to minimise delays. A more desperate and less satisfactory measure might be (after the film crew has left town) to reduce prices or increase marketing with the extra cash made during the boom. In any event, market awareness is vital to competitiveness.

Developing and maintaining a keen awareness of the market will help a firm identify its sources of competitive advantage and disadvantage, and then to build on strengths and minimise its weaknesses. There are many ways to do this and tangible and intangible resources that can be used in the process.

Cash reserves can be used to finance sustained marketing campaigns, innovative development programmes or price
reductions.

Purchasing power and the ability to secure reliable supply at low costs develop competitiveness. Costs, quality, prices and delivery can be improved by building close working relations with preferred suppliers.

People are invariably the decisive factor in achieving success: an organisation can only be as good as the people who work for it. If there is typically a high staff turnover in the industry, the business should be geared to recruiting the best employees. If flexibility and speed of response are valuable (and they usually are), the organisation should be able to anticipate major decisions, making the right choices and implementing them.

Effective leadership is essential; its absence is a source of competitive disadvantage. Product factors inevitably have a significant impact on competitiveness. They include pricing and discounts, distribution channels, marketing methods, brand reputation and appeal, product quality and how the product relates to others (for example, the popularity of film merchandise rests largely on the success of the film).

Market awareness – understanding who the customers are and what they want (and do not want or need) – is also decisive in determining competitiveness. Few markets are clearly defined, and although a business may be open to any potential customer, it is important to know exactly who the core customers are so that their interests can be given priority.

The following checklist provides a framework to ensure decisions help build a firm’s competitive strength.

Develop market awareness Developing a keen sense of market awareness requires keeping up-todate with what your competitors are doing, how they are perceived in the market, and why. Decisions should take the following into account according to the importance attached to each:

• pricing policies and product offers;
• brand reputation and recognition;
• customers’ perceptions;
• product quality;
• service levels;
• product portfolio;
• organisational factors such as size, economies of scale, type of employees, training, expenditure on product development and distribution channels;
• organisational culture;
• staff loyalty;
• promotional campaigns, timing, nature and channels used;
• customer loyalty;
• financial structure and performance and cash reserves.

Decision-makers should be able to recognise when competition may arise or when it is gathering pace. Competition can intensify in several circumstances:

When a market is expanding or new, as with computers and software over the past 20 years or with the mobile telecommunications industry during the past ten years.

When the stakes are high and there are big profits (or losses) to be made, notably when there are few organisations in a large market as, for example, with Coca-Cola.

When a market is about to change, perhaps as a result of developments affecting patents and intellectual property rights (for example, when the patent for a drug expires), or political or legal developments, such as privatisation.

When a market is shrinking, especially when there is overcapacity in an industry (usually one that is mature), with firms chasing fewer and fewer customers. This is apparent in a number of long-established manufacturing industries such as ship-building, steel-making and car production.

Suppliers wield significant power if the item they provide is scarce or unique, or if there are only a few suppliers. They have considerable power to damage a competitive position. One response is to build close relations with important suppliers to secure delivery and control prices.

In the long term, the solution may be to move into the supplier’s industry to safeguard supplies.

The power of the customer is another source of competition. The issues that need consideration are how dependent the business is on individual customers, the ease with which customers can move to another supplier, the customer’s knowledge of the business’s competitors and the conditions (price, quality, overall offer) that are prevailing. The growth of the internet as a sales channel has empowered customers. In an increasingly networked, global marketplace, prices become transparent and it is much easier to discover when prices for the same thing are different in separate geographic markets. Price transparency became even more of a strategic issue for businesses in euro zone countries when they adopted a single currency.